Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
