How The Unusual Campaign Broke the Conventional Coach of the Year Mould.
Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.
On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. However, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking upset.
But the current competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and longtime underperformers rising collectively. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.
This is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.
5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5
Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.
Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.
Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.
During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a typical season!
The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he falls short in this ranking.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.
Even more notably, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.
The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.
After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.
The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.
3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record
Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.
Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.
Still
